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Thus, the probability that capitalism will remain the societal paradigm is the quantity 1 p. Given my desirabilities D1, D2, D3, D4 for the four potential outcomes BBandGC, GND, CLC, ECS, and the probability, p, of uncertain magnitude between 0 and 1 for a socialist transformation, how would I nevertheless quantify my expectations or utility values regarding my two possible courses of action: committing to economic growth or committing to economic contraction?As follows. Given my subjectively quantified desirabilities D1, D2, D3, D4 for the four potential societal outcomes, along with the as yet unknown probability p for a near term socialist transformation, the utility value or expectation a quantification of my potential satisfaction or dissatisfaction for committing to economic growth isWhile I can pick desirabilities out of my own subjective preferences, feelings and biases, I can only guess or guesstimate at what p might be. So, making such a guesstimate, I can then actually calculate a numerical value for each of Eg and Er. Comparing these, I would then choose to act according to whichever expectation quantity had the higher value. This is Bayesian decision making, you choose the action that is subjectively of higher value to you, given your estimate of the probabilities of the uncertainties. 5 would have utility values ofBut not everybody is so lopsided in their preferences. So, for the probability of socialism, p, estimated at greater than 1/3, Er is greater that Eg; committing to economic contraction will have more personal value that committing to economic expansion. Obversely, for the probability of socialism, p, estimated at less than 1/3, Eg is greater than Er; and committing to economic expansion will have more personal value than committing to economic contraction. For this mild liberal individual, if they believe that socialism has a better than 33% chance of happening, they should commit to economic contraction, environmentalism and consequently socialism. If they believe that socialism has less than a 33% chance of occurring then they should commit to being an economic growth capitalist.

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